Diffusion of Robotics
By François TRETARRE, Territories of Tomorrow Foundation

After 6 years of R&D, Sony commercialized Aibo, a companion robot. Nevertheless, after 7 years of commercialization, the diffusion of this innovation was not large enough to amortize costs and Sony stopped the project.
In 2005, the French firm Aldebaran Robotics wanted to replace Aibo and began R&D to create Nao, a new companion robot.
There is to understand why the innovation diffusion failed for Sony robot and if the new companion robot will have the same diffusion problem.

The critical mass of adopters using the innovation was never reached for Aibo. The first adopters were innovators who were passionate by technology, adventurous-enough to face a waste if the firm stopped the project and wealthy-enough to afford the high prices of first robots. These adopters were active information seekers who used forums and blogs on the Internet to share information.
These blogs played a key role in the adoption decision process since bloggers were considered as opinion leaders who had a great influence on early adopters.
This is why Aldebaran Robotics tries to use Internet communities as much as possible. This change agent seeks to persuade their potential clients to adopt their innovation.
But Sony failed to reach early majority. There was indeed a problem of heterophily since innovators and early adopters were not similar enough to early majority to influence them. Even if the communication among innovators and early adopters was good enough to foster the diffusion, early majority wasn’t reached through these adopters.

However, the social system is an advantage for the diffusion of these innovations. Indeed, communication is fostered by technology and system norms are adapted with relatively low barriers to change. Moreover, companion robots can be considered as in the same technology cluster than computers and adopter’s experiences will influence the diffusion of companion robots.

Nevertheless the perceived relative advantage of these innovations is relatively low. Indeed costs are high, there is no economic nor convenience advantage and it doesn’t solve any individual’s problem. Robots are difficult to understand for people and are most of the time perceived as difficult to use. It is also difficult for potential adopters to try these robots or to observe it in contexts similar to their lifestyle. And despite the fact that perceived advantages like social prestige and satisfaction are clear for adopter’s, it doesn’t counterbalance costs.

An engine for diffusion is that these robots can be re-invented by adopters since they can change their software and behaviors and then diffuse these new possibilities on the Internet.
Moreover the companion robot is not objectively new as the idea exists since a long time ago and most of the people know the idea of companion robots by watching movies or reading books. It entails the fact that diffusion should be easier.

To conclude, the main problem that faced Sony was the transition between early adopters and early majority during the diffusion of the innovation. The relative advantage was not high enough for potential customers and adopters were not influent enough to convince early majority because of heterophily problems.
Aldebaran Robotics is now following the same pattern with really good communication and information sharing among innovators and people who will be early adopters. But there is to wonder if they will be able to bridge the gap to reach early majority. The use of mass media could be a solution but even Sony with more means didn’t succeed.
Maybe the rate of diffusion of this innovation will never be high enough to reach the critical mass of adopters until companion robots have a clear high perceived advantage for potential adopters such as solving individual’s problems. This means that Aldebaran Robotics should focus on the needs of people and the perceived advantages of its companion robot instead of the real advantages. They should also try to reduce the perceived complexity of use and understanding. Another means to foster the innovation diffusion would be to allow potential adopters to try it with a low cost trial period for example. And to make these companion robots more observable in contexts similar to individual’s lifestyle for instance by renting it. More people would be able to afford renting the innovation and their social networks would be able to observe it and so, more willing to buy or rent it too. The final goal is to reach the critical mass of adopters even if it requires high expending and not being profitable till this time.